Bear Witness Let’s discuss Caleb Williams. I’m not totally sure why, but Williams is a very controversial player. There’s a lot of people that think he’s legitimately awful. I want to split this post into four sections. First, we’ll discuss a few misconceptions about Williams. Then, we’ll discuss what I’d like to see him improve at. We’ll end by going over some of the things I’ve liked (spoiler alert: there’s a lot). I’ll wrap up with a short conclusion.
The Misconceptions
I’ve seen two primary misconceptions about Caleb Williams. The first is that he is a backyard football player that doesn’t know how to play on-schedule and in-structure. I strongly disagree with this. It’s hard for me to better expand on this other than saying “watch the tape.” It’s clear that Williams wants to win from the pocket first. In fact, there were times especially in his rookie year where I wanted to see him create even earlier in the play. A few numbers to help back up my opinion. 
First, yes, Caleb leaves the pocket a lot! Oh no! But wait, let’s take a deeper look. Caleb’s clean pocket bail rate was 22%, lower than that of Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. What does this show? It shows that Caleb is not just bailing out of clean pockets to create. He wants to play from the pocket. Also, look at the players with > 25% rate of leaving the pocket: Jackson, Williams, Hurts, Daniels, Allen, Maye, McCarthy, Dart, Mahomes, Nix. Notice anything? They are all mobile QBs, some more than others. If you have an athlete at QB, you should expect them to get out of the pocket more. Now look at the guys with the lowest percentages: Jones, Flacco, Goff, Stafford, etc. All statues. If these numbers don’t convince you, watch the film yourself. Try to see when Williams leaves the pocket. Is anyone really open? Is there pressure? I think you’ll have a tough time arguing with a lot of his decisions.
The second topic is on Time To Throw (TTT). TTT needs more context. Too many people just think high TTT = bad. This is not right. I think Stephen Ruiz has a great article about Caleb’s TTT here: link. You should read it. I think there are a few more points to make. First, TTT is an average. If a QB throws in 2 secs, 2 secs, 2 secs, and 10 secs, their TTT is quite high at 4. But on a regular basis, they were actually getting the ball out quite quick. So outliers can really pull the average up. The other major thing to me is to ask why a QB’s TTT is high. If a QB is getting through the progression and nobody is open, they might leave the pocket and throw the ball after 10 seconds. Does that high TTT mean the QB was bad on that play? Obviously not. I think what is more important is whether the QB is processing information and letting it rip when things are there. If a QB’s TTT is high because they aren’t seeing the field or aren’t pulling the trigger when things are NFL-open, then it’s a problem. While Williams isn’t Tom Brady, I certainly think he’s a capable-but-still developing processor. And even with a high TTT, Caleb isn’t taking sacks anyway.
The Bad
Let’s start with the things I’d like to see Williams improve at. The first thing is the accuracy. Whether it’s completion percentage, off-target throws, or CPOE, Williams scores poorly. It’s definitely something that shows up on tape as well. There are just some bad misses (and some sick throws too). I’m not a QB coach, so I’m not qualified to tell you what’s going wrong. One thing I’ve noticed is that sometimes his feet aren’t aligned with the target, which can lead to inaccuracy. I’m not at a freak-out point with the accuracy, but it’s something to watch over time. Additionally, sometimes I feel like Williams needs to be a bit more decisive. He is prone to extending plays for long periods and eventually running toward the sideline before throwing the ball, rather than taking off and getting a quick five yards. This is a slippery slope because it’s hard to coach the creative aspect. I just feel that sometimes he’d be better off scrambling and taking the positive yards.
The Good
There’s a lot. While Williams isn’t an elite processor, he’s definitely shown the ability to get through progressions, play in-structure, and throw with anticipation. Another encouraging thing is his willingness to work the intermediate middle of the field, which is congested and hard to sort out. The kicker is that the Bears passing attack is generating huge explosive plays down the field, all while limiting turnovers. Williams rarely ever throws interceptions and overall does a phenomenal job taking care of the football. Here, Williams looks off the defense and throws a laser to Colston Loveland. Look at the influence of Caleb’s eyes on #44.
This stuff is all great, but what makes Williams ceiling so high is that he excels at the uncoachable. He’s a great athlete with 4.5 - 4.6 speed and a strong, stocky build. Just watch him shake off sacks and throw off D-linemen like it’s nothing. His sack avoidance is elite, almost as if he possesses a sixth sense. Williams has special spatial awareness and an array of moves including a disgusting spin move. His overall creativity and ability to extend plays is arguably the best in the league. The play is never dead with #18. Although the Bears haven’t necessarily converted these into big plays, the talent pops off the tape.
In addition, Williams possesses an elite arm. He has all the clubs in the bag: velocity, arm angles, throwing on the run, etc. Check the highlights and you’ll find some eye-popping throws. There isn’t really a whole lot to be said. Just watch and enjoy.
It’s beautiful huh? To top it off, Williams has a baby clutch gene. It always seems like he plays his best during the critical parts of the game. He’s already had six game-winning drives, and it could’ve been more if not for the coaching blunders of last season.
Conclusion
If it wasn’t clear, I like Williams. He’s a misunderstood QB. While he’s not a finished product, his world-class traits give him an extremely high ceiling (think Mahomes, Allen, Jackson tier). Right now, I think accuracy is the main thing holding him back. I do find it weird that many people seem to not recognize how special he can be. Bears fans have been starving for a team-elevating, top-tier QB for their entire existence. They don’t seem to realize they MIGHT already have that guy. Will Caleb Williams ever reach his true ceiling? I’m not sure, but I’m hopeful. I guess only time will tell.