Bear Witness This is a frustrating topic to me. I see a lot of people on social media that seem to think wins = how good a QB is. I have a lot of issues with this belief, and I’ll try to list some of them in this post.
The team, the team, the team.
Football is the ultimate team game. No matter how well a QB plays, their team can still lose the game due to a variety of factors: bad pass protection, receivers not separating, drops, poor playcalling, poor play design, a bad defense, special teams errors, etc. With so many factors out of their control, how can you attribute a win or loss directly to the QB? Furthermore, how can you say that a QB playing on a losing team with less talent or poor coaching is a bad QB? How many QBs can actually drag their team to victory singlehandedly? Not many.
Situation matters.
The situation and context for a QB also matters. I know this will ruffle some feathers (get it?), but I think Jalen Hurts is a good case study. Last year, Hurts played behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, with one of the best RBs in the league, and one of the best receiving corps in the league. Not to mention a phenomenal defense to boot. His stats weren’t great, but he wasn’t asked to do a lot either, since the Eagles run game was so dominant. Is it fair for Hurts to get credit for all the Eagles wins? Was Hurts really the primary reason this Eagles team was so good? I don’t think so. Just to be clear, I think Jalen Hurts is a good football player and solid QB. I just don’t get how people see him as elite.
The logical component.
To me, it’s just not logical to say a QB is good just cause their team wins. Are we really supposed to believe that QB A with superior stats, metrics, and tape is worse than a QB B with worse stats, metrics, and tape just because QB B’s team is winning? That makes no sense. Is Trent Dilfer better than Dan Marino cause he has a ring?
The question.
So how should we think about and perceive QBs? I think it’s a loaded question. Obviously stats and advanced metrics play a role. But I think it’s also important to consider the supporting cast and situation around a QB. In general, the great QBs do more with less (looking at you Drake Maye). Additionally, what a QB is asked to do also matters. For example, how much is a QB pushing the ball downfield vs throwing screens or running RPOs? Ultimately, the tape is probably the best way to determine how a QB is playing. It gives you the ability to see everything we’ve discussed (supporting cast, play designs, etc.). Unfortunately, it’s hard to access tape in the first place, and it’s hard to evaluate tape without being in the QB room or having some football expertise. Still, I think people that want to develop their own nuanced opinions and thoughts on QB play ought to look toward the film.